Something I hadn’t expected to see is happening tonight. As I type this the 4/2 Stryker Brigade is driving through Iraq on it's way to Kuwait. Tonight marks the official end to Operation Iraqi Freedom with the withdrawal of the last US combat units from Iraq. While I had heard that it was planned to happen soon I hadn’t truly believed it would be this soon or this significant.
While the US will still have some military personnel in country they will be operating in non-combat roles (ie training, administration, etc). [Something about the nomenclature and caveats being used here makes me want to draw some parallels to the ostensible mission of MAC-V but I feel that would be inappropriate right now and I don't want to bring political concerns into this.] Let us all hope that this change in deployments, posture and mission will be accompanied by an end to casualties for our troops that are still there.
So, as we all watch OIF move into the realm of history tonight let's prepare to welcome those that are returning home and keep those that are still in Iraq in mind as we await the eventual end of their mission and their (hopefully) safe return.
CORRECTION: The actual official end to OIF and the beginning of Operation New Dawn happens at the end of the month. This is the effective end of US combat troops' presence in Iraq. [Wed 20100819-13:32]
Got your call last night, I caught a bit of it. (recuperating from a seizure this Sunday). It's a big deal in the sense of Iraq's winding down. I don't think the insurgents realize their moment's passed, and the best they can manage is to recreate Northern Ireland. That's assuming the Iranians don't fill the power vacuum..of course.
ReplyDeleteSorry to hear about Sunday, hopefully your recover continues apace.
ReplyDeleteAs for the situation in Iraq and for our remaining forces there, it is simultaneously a big change and no difference. As far as the media and the public are concerned, we're done there; As for our troops still deployed there, it's looking a bit like MACV and our 'adviser' teams post '73. As for the insurgents, the withdrawal of our combat units will likely make them feel like they are making progress and puts them a bit closer to being in a "Phase III" situation (para 1-34, FM 3-24) where they can establish some form of civil authority (or at least the appearance of one). Although given the historical tensions between the Iraqis and Iran (back to ancient Persia) overt involvement or support by 'official' Iran might be counter productive to insurgent groups (oddly Iran's best bet for getting the anti-western groups into power might well be to clandestinely support the insurgency [materially, financially, etc] similarly to our support of the Afghan mujahideen in the 80's while overtly/publicly releasing statements in support of the Western/Coalition forces and their mission). The real deciding factor as to how the insurgency ends will be in whether or not the insurgent's PR people can cut it. Now that US forces are limited to conventional CT style operations there won't be the opportunities for vilifying US forces for collateral damage and casualties or decrying "American imperialism" but US aid programs will still be active and can be subverted to insurgents' benefit by claiming credit for the program's benefits and successes (I think it was al-Zarqawi that managed this on one occasion I had heard of when insurgents successfully claimed credit for a US Army program to hand out money to families in a impoverished neighborhood, the insurgent leader became very popular in that area).